by: Michael Buresh Updated:
Oct. 1, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap
First day without a named storm over the Atlantic Basin since Aug. 23rd!.... 3rd longest streak on record - table below from Dr. Phil Klotzbach. The "September to remember" will almost certainly have 2 names retired by the WMO next year - Irma & Maria.
A low pressure trough has developed across Fl. The weak surface low has essentially dissipated but - as emphasized the past several days - with or without the low, strong onshore (out of the east) winds are developing with a very high rip current risk along with bands/waves of heavy rain & coastal flooding. The strong east winds will translate into the potential for river & tributary flooding inland as well, especially at times of high tide. It'a "no name" nor'easter that will pack a major punch for the local Jacksonville area.
THROUGH MON. FOR NE FL./SE GA:
-- increasing winds off the Atlantic - averaging 15-25 + mph Sat. .... 20-30 mph sustained but gusts 40+ mph Sun. - Mon. Trees will be more susceptible to damage than usual due to Irma's recent hit as well as saturated ground. There will be a few power outages though loss of power is not expected to be widespread.
-- rough seas & surf as surf builds to 9+ feet with breakers at the beaches of at least 6-8 feet Sunday-Monday
-- beach erosion & a very high rip current risk
-- flooding - especially during any prolonged heavy rain bands.... & at times of high tide which will be given an extra astronomical boost by the approaching full moon (Thu.,Oct. 5). Water levels could reach as high as 2-3 feet, locally 4 feet above average, especially at times of high tide -- along the coast, St. Johns Rivers & most tributaries.
High tides @ Mayport: SUN: 5:38am / 6:08pm.... MON: 6:29am / 6:54pm.... TUE: 7:16am / 7:39pm
-- periods of heavy rain: 2-4", 5"+ for some neighborhoods - especially from near I-95 to the beaches... 1 -3", locally more west of I-95.
Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
Surface map below shows the strong high pressure from the Great Lakes to the Northeast U.S. High pressure will be a mainstay north of Jacksonville for the next week & beyond resulting in a very prolonged period of onshore winds that will eat away at our area beaches. By the time the weather pattern breaks down, it's possible that some of our beaches could experience erosion similar to that of a tropical cyclone.
48 hour wave & wind direction forecast:
Average wave heights:
The Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean is becoming more unsettled. There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area in the coming days which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief" the first couple weeks of Oct.
It looks like general & broad low pressure will evolve over parts of the Caribbean/Central America & Gulf of Mexico during the next week to 10 days. Depending on any land interaction, this could eventually evolve into a tropical cyclone & will need to be watched closely as this is the time of year for slow but sometimes strong tropical development over the still very warm water of the Southern Gulf &/or Caribbean. Forecast models are not of much help on solving the details for right now, so we'll just have to see how things evolve in the coming days realizing there is a strong signal for tropical development in/over/&/or near the Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic. The models seems to be struggling with all the low pressure & quite literally pop up a new tropical system in one model run that isn't there in the next one only to be replaced new development somewhere else. So we don't want to get too caught up in individual model runs at this point but realize that the pattern does favor tropical development over the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico &/or Caribbean.
Eric Blake, NHC tweeted this interesting & concerning snapshot of the Gulf & Caribbean now vs. 2005 which produced record setting hurricane Wilma in Oct., 2005. The upshot: the Caribbean is "boiling"...
Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf. We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.
Sea surface temp. anomalies are slowly recovering over/near the Gulf / Fl./ SW Atlantic since the passing of multiple hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria)....
October tropical cyclone typical development & movement:
From Dr. Phil Klotzbach - tropical cyclone genesis during Oct.:
East Atlantic IR satellite (Cape Verde season winding down but waves still moving west in what has been an unseasonably long Cape Verde season):
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.
© 2017 Cox Media Group.